Think smart

[15A]

Interesting report.
Thoughts anyone?

http://www.ntsb.gov/NTSB/brief.asp?ev_i ... 1042&key=1

[jrenwick]

He probably thought the ceiling where he was looked higher than it was reported 5 miles away.

[Bruce Fenstermacher]

I agree. Hard to say not being there.

I think this might be one of those times when this pilot ran out of luck. What do I mean by that? I'm a firm believer that regardless of training and study there is no substitute for experience.

What kind of experience am I talking about? Well let me tell you one thing. If you ask a pilot with a bit of experience if they've ever had a close call with weather or mechanical problems or pilot error and they say no, they are stretching the truth. The difference between this pilot and some of us (me) is that we (I) hit the fog at 500 ft and was, one able to duck under, return to the airport, and tell war stories or went inadvertent IMC and blasted through the fog and before spiraling into the ground, broke out on top, flew on top to a hole and landed and told wars stories.

Of course most of us learn from those types of experiences that we were had some luck and were able to recover from and go on to collect more experience. There are of course a few that don't learn from luck and experience and they eventually run out of luck. And then there are those who get caught with no luck and experience.

The big trick is to learn from your past luck and experience to put you in a better position to make your on luck or so it seems. Fact is lots of pilots with lots of experience seem to make their own luck but it is not luck at all. They've just been lucky to have the past experience to plan a head.

Luck and experience go hand in hand. This pilot seemed to be lacking in one department or the other at this moment. Of course it seems he did survive so who's to say he had no luck at all.

[DWood]

He stated that it indicated an indefinite ceiling of 200 feet

What does an indefinite ceiling of 200 feet mean? Is there a ceiling or isn't there one? is it scattered, broken, obscured, etc?
I don't believe I know the definition
Dan

[Robert Eilers]

Out here in California, especailly Northern California, we see this weather description frequently in the Central Valleys. We have learned that Indefinite ceiling 200 feet means any height above 200 feet you are IMC - maybe with 1/4 mile visibility, maybe with 1 mile visbility, but IMC irregardless. We can see conditions where the airport is IFR, 200 feet indifinite ceiling with 1/4 mile visbility, and be 10 miles CAVU at 1000 feet. I personally believe conditions like that described here are the most dangerous, particularly for inexperienced pilots. When the pilot is flying around in bright sunlight under clear skies the shallow fog or marine layer and reduced visibility underneath seem less threatening. Our "Tri-Valley" area has four mountain passes into it. A compilation of the NTSB CFIT reports for the past twenty years shows shotgun impact patterns along the ridges of these four passes - a testament to the folley of "ducking under".

[pojawis]

Luck: "...where preparation and opportunity meet..."

[Bruce Fenstermacher]

Yes there would be a ceiling at 200ft. An indefinite ceiling is when visibility in hundreds of feet is used. In other words it is how far you can see up fro the point of observation.

[DWood]

Thanks, I have either never heard that term or as soon as I heard 200 ft ceiling, I stopped and said I am staying home. I have run lots of "scud" but never with a 200 ft ceiling. We have trees and buildings almost that tall!
Thx,
Dan

[voorheesh]

The airport in this report is Chico Ranchero, a great little 2200' strip just west of downtown. I go in there (if the weather is good) because I have children who live in the town. This airport is surrounded by almond orchards and has a pretty tall microwave tower about 1/2 mile NW of RW 14. The hangar has a good sized antenna as well. About 2 years ago, Cal Trans threatened to close the airport due to obstacles and other hazards. The owners, who are the greatest people, made the airport restricted and that kept it open. If you give them a phone call, they give you permission to use the strip. Gas is cheap and there is no tie down fee. Great airplanes and good people there on weekends if you need a fuel stop in N. CA.
Having said all the above, this is no airport to be flying in when the fog is in. As Bob said, our central valley gets fogged in during the winter in between storms and people continue to fly hoping to maintain VFR. It can be tricky because it can be real thin with sun poking through leading one to think they will get in the clear quick. This guy would have been smarter to climb up on top which he would have reached in less than 1000' and gone over to Paradise airport about 10 miles east which is usually above the fog and VFR. I wonder if those of us who are CFIs should bring scenarios like this into our primary instruction lessons and BFRs. We stress a 180 degree turn when encountering IMC and some times that is not the best course of action. I met a young man who had a crash in San Luis Obispo about 8 years ago at night. The airport weather was clear, but a wall of advection fog was just off the runway. He flew into it and did what he had been taught- start a 180 only at about 300'AGL he crashed into a nearby hill and his pax was killed. If he had gone on the gauages and climbed straight ahead, he would have topped that coastal layer in less than sixty seconds. By the way, this kid did not have awareness of coastal weather patterns and related that it never came up in his flight instruction. What he knew was how to interpret an AWOS report. Something to think about.

[GAHorn]

I disagree with the instruction to "make a 180" in every case of inadvertent IMC. If it's violent wx/TRW...a 180 might actually keep you in it even longer. Obviously, if you're so low that terrain is a problem you've got to continue a climb at the very least...regardless of whether a 180-degree turn is appropriate.

Indefinite ceiling means just that. The ceiling is not so definite that it can be measured with accuracy. It's "indefinite"...not well-defined... but still a ceiling.

This report is somewhat confusing in that it states "an hour into the flight" but then the narrative indicates this is a takeoff accident. Taking off in 200 overcast, whether definite or indefinite, is no wx to be departing VFR.